keen

Core thesis: Debt drives the economy
Mainstream economics treats debt as neutral. Keen argues banks create money through lending — when debt grows faster than GDP, it's a warning signal. His primary indicator is private debt-to-GDP.

On the 2008 crisis:
• His model showed private debt ratios peaking in 2007
• The crisis was predictable from the debt dynamics, not a Black Swan
• Minsky's instability: stability breeds recklessness — as debt builds, lenders get reckless until the whole thing collapses

On Modern Monetary Theory:
• Broadly supports MMT's core insight (sovereign governments aren't revenue-constrained)
• But argues MMT undersells private debt — the real driver of instability is private sector debt, not government spending
On AI/data centres:
Keen would view the AI infrastructure boom like electricity grids — genuinely transformative, but whose benefits accrue to capital, not labour.
He'd emphasise the energy constraint is fundamental: AI data centres are extremely power-hungry, which contradicts "free marginal cost" tech optimism.

Applying Keen + Minsky to AI infrastructure:
The instability comes from the debt-financed buildout. If energy prices rise or AI ROI disappoints, the debt stays — the revenue doesn't. That's the Minsky moment for tech.