keen

Core thesis: Debt drives the economy Mainstream economics treats debt as neutral. Keen argues banks create money through lending — when debt grows faster than GDP, it's a warning signal. His primary indicator is private debt-to-GDP.

On the 2008 crisis: • His model showed private debt ratios peaking in 2007 • The crisis was predictable from the debt dynamics, not a Black Swan • Minsky's instability: stability breeds recklessness — as debt builds, lenders get reckless until the whole thing collapses

On Modern Monetary Theory: • Broadly supports MMT's core insight (sovereign governments aren't revenue-constrained) • But argues MMT undersells private debt — the real driver of instability is private sector debt, not government spending On AI/data centres: Keen would view the AI infrastructure boom like electricity grids — genuinely transformative, but whose benefits accrue to capital, not labour. He'd emphasise the energy constraint is fundamental: AI data centres are extremely power-hungry, which contradicts "free marginal cost" tech optimism.

Applying Keen + Minsky to AI infrastructure: The instability comes from the debt-financed buildout. If energy prices rise or AI ROI disappoints, the debt stays — the revenue doesn't. That's the Minsky moment for tech.